Descriptive summary of the unit In this curricular unit na introduction to the probability theory and statistical inference is made. The probability theory topic, which includes the axiomatic and sampling distributions will be approached in chapters I, II and III. In chapter IV the statistical inference will be approached and in chapter V the bidimensional statistical analysis will be introduced.
Learning objectives and expected outcomes 1. To describe and use appropriately the main probability distributions; 2. To infer population parameters; 3. Apply the usual techniques in probability and statistics in decision-making processes.
Skills to be developed The skills to be developed will be the ability to properly apply techniques of statistical inference. Moreover, understanding the need for an application of critical analysis in the decision-making process and capacity to develop research work.
Programme
I Probability Theory: Random experience; space results and events
II Concepts of probability. Conditional Probability. Bayes Theorem. Independent events
III Theoretical Distributions and e Approximate Distributions 1. Discrete distributions: Binomial and Poisson 2. Continuous distributions: Normal, t-Student and Chi-square 3. Central Limit Theorem
IV Statistical inference 1. Distribution of sampling 2. Point Estimate 3. Interval estimate (confidence intervals) 4. Testing hypotheses: Introductory concepts. Parametric and non-parametric tests
V Linear Regression
Demonstration of the syllabus coherence with the curricular unit's learning objectives
The first chapter present like a requirement for the study and application of statistical. The study of the second and third chapters will facilitate the knowledge of the theory of probabilities and will allow the description and appropriate application of the discreet and continuous distributions. Chapter number four will allow to the students know technicians of statistical inference. In Chapter number five, bivariate analysis technics will be introduced. In general all chapters will contribute so that students will be able to take decisions according probability and statistics techniques.
Main literature
David Doane and Lori Seward;Applied Statistics in Business and Economics, McGraw-Hill, 2019
Jan Uboe;Introductory Statistics for Business and Economics, Springer, 2017
Supplementary Bibliography
Abdul Quader Miah;Applied Statistics for Social and Management Sciences, Springer, 2016
Learning Methods
The teaching methodologies are supported by pragmatic approaches and real situations, involving the resolution of case studies. The theoretical concepts will be introduced through application exercises in the area of economics. Students will be dealt with real problems so that they can develop a critical analysis allowing to setup and solve the given problems. The effective attendance of students in class will be recorded and, if the number of absences per student exceeds 30% of the total number of contact sessions, will be automatically transferred to the final evaluation of the normal season.
Assessment Components
Avaliação distribuída com exame final
Assessment Components
Description
Type
Time (hours)
Conclusion Date
Attendance (estimated)
Lessons
45
First written test
Teste/Exame
1,5
Second written test / Exam
Teste/Exame
1,5
Participação Presencial
15
Study
85
Exercise resolution
Participação Presencial
12
Total:
160
Continuous Assessment
Tests (individual) 70% + 1st written assignment 15% + 2nd written assignment 15%.
The assignments must be submitted through the ELearning plataform according to the dates defined in the PIA, using the Turnitin database platform available in the ELearning pltaform.
Under the terms of the General Regulation:
1. The students' attendance in classes will be recorded and, if the number of absences per student exceeds 30% of the total number of lessons scheduled for each course unit, the student will be automatically transferred to the final evaluation (regular season). 2. In the written tests and other assessment elements mentioned in paragraph 2 of Art. 39 it is necessary to obtain a minimum grade of 7.5 (seven point five) points. 3. If the student misses a test or receives a grade lower than 7.5 points in the tests or in another assessment element mentioned in the previous number, the student will be automatically transferred to the final evaluation (regular season). 4. If the student misses or obtains less than 7.5 in the second written test, held in the same date of the final exam in the regular season, they may apply for further evaluation in the Appeal season. 5. All written academic work provided for in the assessment (reports, case studies, etc.) must be submitted to the Turnitin database, available on the ISAG E-Learning platform, with a similarity rate up to 30% acceptable.
Final Exam
Exam (individual) 100%.
Special Assessment (TE, DA, ...)
Exam (individual) 100%.
Improvement of final grade
Exam (individual) 100%.
Demonstration of the coherence between the teaching methodologies and the learning outcomes
The development of the classes will proceed harmonizing the teaching methodologies with the
fundamental objectives of the curricular unit (CU). The provision of scientific and technical information and knowledge provided for in the objectives will be developed at the beginning of each subject to be addressed in the theoretical-practical classes, where the relationship with other subjects covered in previous classes will be established. In these sessions, it will be intended to develop the students' competences and make them aware of the importance of the topics approached in real context, contributing to a better framing and also a better understanding of the objectives to be achieved. An attempt will be made to stimulate a dialogue process in which everyone participates through their own experience and knowledge. Thus, knowledge, doubts and questions will be shared, in order to benefit students' learning and provoke greater motivation. Essentially, the aim will be to ensure the development of the skills to apply acquired knowledge in different contexts, under the influence of different factors and variables. The practical work required by the students will make an important contribution to the achievement of the objectives set for the CU. The students' evaluation will be used to measure the effectiveness of the teaching methodologies used and, if necessary, corrections in the teaching methodologies may be made in the future.