This course unit is an introduction to the study of probability theory and statistical inference, which provides the understanding and application of the key concepts and methods.
OBJECTIVES AND LEARNING OUTCOMES
- To describe and use appropriately the main discrete and continuous probability distributions;
- To infer population parameters based on sampling distributions;
- Apply the usual techniques in probability and statistics in decision-making processes.
SKILLS TO BE DEVELOPED
- Ability to properly apply techniques of statistical inference;
- Understanding the need for and application of critical analysis in the decision-making process;
- Ability to develop research work autonomously.
Programme
Chapter 1 - Probability Theory
1. Random experience; space results, events.
2. Concepts of probability. Conditional Probability. Bayes Theorem. Independent events.
Chapter 2 - Theoretical Distributions and e Approximate Distributions
1. Discrete distributions: Binomial and Poisson.
2. Continuous distributions: Normal, t-Student and Chi-square.
3. Central Limit Theorem.
Chapter 3 - Statistical inference
1. Distribution of sampling.
2. Point Estimate.
3. Interval estimate (confidence intervals).
4. Testing hypotheses: Basic concepts. Parametric tests and nonparametric tests.
5. Linear Regression.
Demonstration of the syllabus coherence with the curricular unit's learning objectives
The first chapter present like a requirement for the study and application of statistical knowledges.
The study of first and second chapter will facilitate the knowledge of the theory of probabilities and will allow the description and appropriate application of the discreet and continuous distributions.
The third and chapter will allow to the students know technicians of statistical inference.
In general all chapters will contribute so that students will be able to take decisions according probability andstatistics techniques.
Main literature
Marôco, João;Análise Estatística com o SPSS Statistics (7º Edição), Report Number, 2018. ISBN: 9789899676350
Murteira, B., Ribeiro, C., Silva, J., Pimenta, F. e Pimenta, C.;Introdução à Estatística (3ª edição), Escolar Editora, 2015. ISBN: 9789725924686 (Pode ser ultilizada a 2.ª versão de 2010)
Supplementary Bibliography
Ferreira, P., Lopes & Lisboa, J., Veríssimo & Augusto, M., Gomes;Estatística Aplicada à Gestão, Vida Económica, 2012. ISBN: 9789727884483
Webster, A.L.;Estatística Aplicada à Administração e Economia, Editora McGraw-Hill, 2006
António Carvalho Pedrosa e Sílvio Marques A. Gama;Introdução Computacional à Probabilidade e Estatística, Porto Editora, 2007. ISBN: 978-972-0-06056-3
Learning Methods
The classes are theoretical and practical, thus the key concepts are presented, followed by the study of practical applications and by the resolution of practical exercises. In the calculation process approach, tools available on calculators will be used, as well as the Microsoft Excel.
Assessment Components
Avaliação distribuída com exame final
Assessment Components
Description
Type
Time (hours)
Conclusion Date
Attendance (estimated)
Lessons
45
Individual written tests
Teste/Exame
3
Study
Study
67
Participação Presencial
15
Teste/Exame
30
Total:
160
Continuous Assessment
1. Fieldwork with 30% weight in the final grade.
2. Activities in elearning platform with 10% weighting.
3. Written tests with a weight of 60% (30% per test) in the final grade.
Under the terms of the Bachelor's Regulation:
1. The students' attendance in classes will be recorded and, if the number of absences per student exceeds 30% of the total number of lessons predicted for each course unit, the student will be automatically transferred to the final evaluation ("época normal").
2. In the written tests and other assessment elements referred to in points b) to e) of paragraph 2 of Art. 39 it is necessary to obtain a minimum grade of 7.5 (seven dot five) points.
3. If the student fails a test or receives a grade lower than 7.5 points in the tests or in another assessment element referred to in the previous number, the student will be automatically transferred to the final evaluation ("época normal").
4. If the student misses or fails to obtain a grade of at least 7.5 points in the second written test (held on the same date as the final written test of "época normal"), the student may apply for evaluation at "época de recurso".
Final Exam
Written exam. And under the terms of Art. 41 of the Bachelor's Regulation:
- The practical or theoretical-practical work(s) referred to in point b) of paragraph 1 of Art. 36 may also be considered, with a weighting corresponding to half of that considered in the continuous assessment, if the student communicates such intention to the professor, filling, in that case, a specific form to be made available by the professor at the moment of the written exam.
Improvement of final grade
The exam will correspond to 100% of the final grade.
Demonstration of the coherence between the teaching methodologies and the learning outcomes
The methodologies will be mostly theoretical practical.
The concepts and technical of analysis will be presented to expository form and with problematic situations. The students will be
encouraged to analyse the situations of critical form based on logical and scientific foundation.